Well, not really. In a previous post I related a presentation that my boss gave to us about renewable energy (wind and solar), carbon taxes and carbon sequestration proposals, and how about 25 proposed coal fired power plants had been canceled. If you work in a power plants for a while you know first hand how hard they are to maintain, yet alone to build, and how often the whole system is on the verge of failure do to high demand. It was a good presentation, and it led to the conclusion that without new coal fired plants that it was unlikely that the current reliability of the grid would continue.
Here is an article that details the state of the worlds electrical grids in a general way. You might think that this can't happen here, but it can. I am looking at a couple of solar kits designed for small cabins or RV's that aren't too expensive (170W, 200 W, 300 W). While they wouldn't provide us with all the power that we are used to consuming, either one would let us run the fan on the fireplace, the hot water heater on a limited basis, and maybe more. I am thinking 3-5 years on getting this in. Might even start with a smaller starter kit to get the feel for the different loads.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Good Cartoon
I saw this on The Oil Drum today. Too much truth. One day when I was driving Mr. Russell around we were talking about the state of the world and got to talking about energy. I said it was hard to believe that so little progress had been made in using solar energy. He replied that with fossil fuels you install the furnace or stove and keep paying the rest of it's life. With solar, you install the equipment and then ...... no one gets paid.
And truth be told, International oil companies are losing control of the market. National oil companies (Think Gazprom of Russia, also Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela - many countries) are gaining power and influence. The Exxon-Mobils and Chevrons of the world want to find the oil, develop the oil and get it to market. The more they pump, the more they make. National companies realize that this may be their countrie's only chance to develop infrastructure and markets. The higher the prices go, the better for them. ...
Incidentally, I think the Oil Drum has more information on the oil industry and oil geology than any site I have seen. Most of the contributors are oil professionals, so if you want information from those that walk the walk.....it is hard to beat. Otherwise, if you want pleasant pablum, continue on with network TV and financial publications.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
It's a New Year!
Here are some predictions by Ambrose Evans-Prichard. You probably haven't heard of him unless you follow the London Telegraph. More global than local in scope.
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Supply vs. Demand
I only have two graphs to show. Right now crude oil is selling for almost $97/bbl. Of course some of that price is blamed on a falling dollar, and rightly so. What bothers me is that even at these high prices, our national inventory- the amount we have in the tank farms across the country - is falling.
My conclusion from this is that, world wide, we are beginning the slide down the back of the bell curve of production, and that while there is still a lot of oil out there that to have as much as we want, we will have to bid significantly more for it.
This graph show actual production and then a variety of different predictions for the future. Notice the very optimistic EIA and IEIA lines. These are governmental and international agency estimates that assume that supply will not be a problem for the next several decades.
The oil business is very complicated, and very intertwined with the economy in general. Everyone seems to be holding their breath for the minute that crude breaks $100/bbl. and I think that there is probably a some arm twisting from the FED/Treasury to keep it under that mark if at all possible, even if inventories suffer for it. But the truth is that $100/bbl. is just a number, and it's only importance is in our minds. If you correct for inflation oil would have to be closer to $200/bbl to produce the economic problems that we felt during the 1973 oil shock.
While these graphs illustrate the problem, here are a few links that show some promise for the future.
Designer microbes producing fuel from garbage.
New fusion techniques that might have a huge impact on electrification. Go to 'future work'. More on the guy that came up with this new concept- Robert Bussard.
Thin film photovolatics are promising. There are also new improvements in efficiency in standard thick film PV panels that have to do with splitting the incoming light into different colors, and allowing a wavelength specific receptor layer to accept that 'color' of photon. Efficiencies as high as 42% are claimed.
Note that these are possibilities- there is very little in the way of infrastructure. Photovoltaics are not common, they are a curiosity. They show great promise, but are still fairly rare. The garbage to fuel technology is promising, but think about how much fuel is used just in SLC in any one day, and then realize that all the garbage would have to be transported to some central location and then processed before the bugs could eat it.... a pretty big job in itself.
For you who want to wade through an excellent technical article I do recommend 'On Energy Transitions Past and Future'. There is a ton of information there.
So, what do we have here? The end of the world? Nope, but maybe the end of the world as we know it. Energy will become harder to get, and we will have to use it more carefully. If we move to a photovoltaic based energy system, we probably won't have much going on at night. Any power that is produced to keep things going will likely be charged at 20 times the daylight rate. Street lights will be a lot dimmer and probably LED based.... you get the idea. We will adapt, but adaptation is sometimes painful and inconvenient.
We are very blessed to live in a developed country as there is a good possibility that we can live comfortably and well in the future. Many developing countries are experiencing electrical shortages as well as fuel shortages. They often burn heavy oil in their power plants and find they just can't afford it anymore. Some have also installed natural gas stations and find they can't get it, or they have to import LNG, and have the port facilities necessary etc.... bottom line, they can't get that either.
Many countries are already experiencing food shortages, even famine. Food like fuel is available if you have the money, but right now grain stores world wide are at a 26 year low. In the US, they are at a 52 year low. Using grain to manufacture fuel is a bad idea. It makes food scarce and costly, and even if we use switchgrass or some other non-edible plant as a feed stock, fewer acres will be available world wide to produce food as acres are diverted to produce fuel.
I guess that time will tell. Expect the unexpected, prepare as best you can. 2008 might be an interesting year in the Chinese sense.
My conclusion from this is that, world wide, we are beginning the slide down the back of the bell curve of production, and that while there is still a lot of oil out there that to have as much as we want, we will have to bid significantly more for it.
This graph show actual production and then a variety of different predictions for the future. Notice the very optimistic EIA and IEIA lines. These are governmental and international agency estimates that assume that supply will not be a problem for the next several decades.
The oil business is very complicated, and very intertwined with the economy in general. Everyone seems to be holding their breath for the minute that crude breaks $100/bbl. and I think that there is probably a some arm twisting from the FED/Treasury to keep it under that mark if at all possible, even if inventories suffer for it. But the truth is that $100/bbl. is just a number, and it's only importance is in our minds. If you correct for inflation oil would have to be closer to $200/bbl to produce the economic problems that we felt during the 1973 oil shock.
While these graphs illustrate the problem, here are a few links that show some promise for the future.
Designer microbes producing fuel from garbage.
New fusion techniques that might have a huge impact on electrification. Go to 'future work'. More on the guy that came up with this new concept- Robert Bussard.
Thin film photovolatics are promising. There are also new improvements in efficiency in standard thick film PV panels that have to do with splitting the incoming light into different colors, and allowing a wavelength specific receptor layer to accept that 'color' of photon. Efficiencies as high as 42% are claimed.
Note that these are possibilities- there is very little in the way of infrastructure. Photovoltaics are not common, they are a curiosity. They show great promise, but are still fairly rare. The garbage to fuel technology is promising, but think about how much fuel is used just in SLC in any one day, and then realize that all the garbage would have to be transported to some central location and then processed before the bugs could eat it.... a pretty big job in itself.
For you who want to wade through an excellent technical article I do recommend 'On Energy Transitions Past and Future'. There is a ton of information there.
So, what do we have here? The end of the world? Nope, but maybe the end of the world as we know it. Energy will become harder to get, and we will have to use it more carefully. If we move to a photovoltaic based energy system, we probably won't have much going on at night. Any power that is produced to keep things going will likely be charged at 20 times the daylight rate. Street lights will be a lot dimmer and probably LED based.... you get the idea. We will adapt, but adaptation is sometimes painful and inconvenient.
We are very blessed to live in a developed country as there is a good possibility that we can live comfortably and well in the future. Many developing countries are experiencing electrical shortages as well as fuel shortages. They often burn heavy oil in their power plants and find they just can't afford it anymore. Some have also installed natural gas stations and find they can't get it, or they have to import LNG, and have the port facilities necessary etc.... bottom line, they can't get that either.
Many countries are already experiencing food shortages, even famine. Food like fuel is available if you have the money, but right now grain stores world wide are at a 26 year low. In the US, they are at a 52 year low. Using grain to manufacture fuel is a bad idea. It makes food scarce and costly, and even if we use switchgrass or some other non-edible plant as a feed stock, fewer acres will be available world wide to produce food as acres are diverted to produce fuel.
I guess that time will tell. Expect the unexpected, prepare as best you can. 2008 might be an interesting year in the Chinese sense.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
The Nearer the Bone, the Sweeter the Meat
This was a saying that Spencer Kimball was fond of quoting. They had a large family and limited means, and the shared a chicken each Sunday as I remember. There wasn't much meat left on the bones when they were done with it either. His Mother would tell him to clean up his piece really well because... the nearer the bone, the sweeter the meat.
This post is about bottling meat and non-acid food at home safely. Sometimes you come onto a good buy, or you want to clean out the freezer and don't want to throw good things out, but just don't have room for them. I wish that this was the type of project that you could do with just what you have on hand, but unforutnately it is not. If you bottle food that doesn't have a significant amount of acid botulism bacteria can grow, and the resultant toxins can kill you. Non-acid, or weakly acid foods need to be processed under pressure. These canners aren't cheap, but you won't have to hock your jewelry. They are durable, and well worth having. As long as they have a functioning gasket and the right weight, they are very reliable. It might be possible to break the gauge on one, but ours has lasted for years and we haven't had any problems. They come in 16 quart and 23 quart sizes, and there might even be some bigger monsters out there. We are happy with our 16 quart model.
Over the years I have bottled soups, beans, and chicken. I haven't had any trouble at all with anything ever spoiling, and we always heat everying that we use for 15 minutes as an added safety measure. Last week I bought a beef chuck roast, and two smaller pork shoulder roasts. I cubed them, put a pinch of dried onions in the bottom of each pint jar. After cubing the roasts, I applied liberal salt and pepper and packed them into the clean pint jars. I added a little water and used a table knife to move the meat around and make sure that I didn't have any air voids.
I put about three inches of water in the canner and put the jars in with the lids
screwed on medium tight. Before you put the lid on, run your moistened finger around the rim of the jar. It puts a little film of water on the glass, and cleans off any debris that might be stuck there.
Each jar had meat and water in it up to the begining of the neck of the jar. Don't fill them as full as you do for water bath canning or they will leak.
I ran hot water over the seal and warmed up the lid before I put it on the canner cooker which softens the gasket and helps it to seal better. Once it was in place you just turn on the heat and wait until you have a healthy stream of steam coming out the weight vent, then put the vent on. Pressure will start to build, but it takes probably 15-20 minutes to get up to 15 lbs of steam needed for processing. Once you have reached 15 psi the weight will begin to rock, releasing a little steam, and regulating the pressure. You can turn down the heat then to about 1/2 burner capacity. I process at 15 lbs pressure for 30 minutes with the heat on, and then turn off the burner and let the cooker cool on it's own. This helps to keep the juice in the jar from boiling out. It takes a long time to cool it all down, and mostly I let it go overnight. That way everything is very cool when I take the lid off. If you rush it, the jars will still be boiling and have a little pressure in them. They juice will tend to cook out a little and has a tendency to ruin the seal. If you feel you want to follow another cooking length recommendation, please do so. This is just what has worked for me.
So here is the finished product: 5 pints of canned beef, 4 pints of canned pork, and one pint of canned sausage... an experiment within and expermiment. I have canned chicken drumsticks and thighs by just putting the raw chicken in the jar, and have also precooked the meat and de-boned it so that I would only have meat and juice in the jar.... The jury is still out on what is best there.
Hope you enjoyed this. There are a lot of things that you can bottle this way, and if you can keep them in the dark and fairly cool, they last for years.
This post is about bottling meat and non-acid food at home safely. Sometimes you come onto a good buy, or you want to clean out the freezer and don't want to throw good things out, but just don't have room for them. I wish that this was the type of project that you could do with just what you have on hand, but unforutnately it is not. If you bottle food that doesn't have a significant amount of acid botulism bacteria can grow, and the resultant toxins can kill you. Non-acid, or weakly acid foods need to be processed under pressure. These canners aren't cheap, but you won't have to hock your jewelry. They are durable, and well worth having. As long as they have a functioning gasket and the right weight, they are very reliable. It might be possible to break the gauge on one, but ours has lasted for years and we haven't had any problems. They come in 16 quart and 23 quart sizes, and there might even be some bigger monsters out there. We are happy with our 16 quart model.
Over the years I have bottled soups, beans, and chicken. I haven't had any trouble at all with anything ever spoiling, and we always heat everying that we use for 15 minutes as an added safety measure. Last week I bought a beef chuck roast, and two smaller pork shoulder roasts. I cubed them, put a pinch of dried onions in the bottom of each pint jar. After cubing the roasts, I applied liberal salt and pepper and packed them into the clean pint jars. I added a little water and used a table knife to move the meat around and make sure that I didn't have any air voids.I put about three inches of water in the canner and put the jars in with the lids
screwed on medium tight. Before you put the lid on, run your moistened finger around the rim of the jar. It puts a little film of water on the glass, and cleans off any debris that might be stuck there.
Each jar had meat and water in it up to the begining of the neck of the jar. Don't fill them as full as you do for water bath canning or they will leak.
I ran hot water over the seal and warmed up the lid before I put it on the canner cooker which softens the gasket and helps it to seal better. Once it was in place you just turn on the heat and wait until you have a healthy stream of steam coming out the weight vent, then put the vent on. Pressure will start to build, but it takes probably 15-20 minutes to get up to 15 lbs of steam needed for processing. Once you have reached 15 psi the weight will begin to rock, releasing a little steam, and regulating the pressure. You can turn down the heat then to about 1/2 burner capacity. I process at 15 lbs pressure for 30 minutes with the heat on, and then turn off the burner and let the cooker cool on it's own. This helps to keep the juice in the jar from boiling out. It takes a long time to cool it all down, and mostly I let it go overnight. That way everything is very cool when I take the lid off. If you rush it, the jars will still be boiling and have a little pressure in them. They juice will tend to cook out a little and has a tendency to ruin the seal. If you feel you want to follow another cooking length recommendation, please do so. This is just what has worked for me.
So here is the finished product: 5 pints of canned beef, 4 pints of canned pork, and one pint of canned sausage... an experiment within and expermiment. I have canned chicken drumsticks and thighs by just putting the raw chicken in the jar, and have also precooked the meat and de-boned it so that I would only have meat and juice in the jar.... The jury is still out on what is best there.Hope you enjoyed this. There are a lot of things that you can bottle this way, and if you can keep them in the dark and fairly cool, they last for years.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
Giving Thanks Under the Table
I suppose that this is not where you might expect to find a post about giving thanks, but I try to be thankful for all of my blessings, and I have much to be thankful for.
Being in times that will likely usher in 'The End of the World as We Know It' is not the same as 'The End of the World' or the 'End of Happiness and Light'.... It means that life as we know it will change. It is almost guaranteed to be a simpler life, and one that moves slower. It is likely that we will have to cling tighter to our family members, so while we might lose some independence, family solidarity will become more important. We might find it greatly to our advantage to learn new skills, and re-learn old skills and values.
From here, under the coffee table I find my cup overflowing. I have a wonderful wife, and wonderful children who picked amazingly wonderful mates. So far in life, I have been blessed with good health, a good job and a quiet little out of the way town to live in. I don't know what the future will bring, to me or to my loved ones. But we never really do know no matter how hard we work at guessing. I think that the frantic pace of our lives might slow down somewhat. I remember my dad telling about Sunday afternoons with his grandpa. They would sometimes contemplate a visit to relatives between Sunday dinner and evening chores, and Great Grandpa would send one of the kids out to the car with a stick and have him measure how much gas there was in the tank. If there was enough, they would make the trip. If it was too low, they would spend the afternoon at home.
In the book 'The Hiding Place' Corrie Ten Boom's sister is thankful for the lice that infest the straw they use for beds in the concentration camp they were sent to. Corrie is stunned when Betsie reveals this in her nightly prayer. Betsie explains that the lice kept the German guards from coming into the living quarters and thus the prisoners could keep some medicine and most important, they hand copies of the New Testament. Well, I am not as thankful as Betsie, or nearly as good of a person either, but I am thankful for the many, many blessings that are in my life so far. I hope that I will always be able to see the hand of the Lord in our lives. If a sparrow doesn't fall without his knowledge, we can be sure that we will not be forgotten either.
Being in times that will likely usher in 'The End of the World as We Know It' is not the same as 'The End of the World' or the 'End of Happiness and Light'.... It means that life as we know it will change. It is almost guaranteed to be a simpler life, and one that moves slower. It is likely that we will have to cling tighter to our family members, so while we might lose some independence, family solidarity will become more important. We might find it greatly to our advantage to learn new skills, and re-learn old skills and values.
From here, under the coffee table I find my cup overflowing. I have a wonderful wife, and wonderful children who picked amazingly wonderful mates. So far in life, I have been blessed with good health, a good job and a quiet little out of the way town to live in. I don't know what the future will bring, to me or to my loved ones. But we never really do know no matter how hard we work at guessing. I think that the frantic pace of our lives might slow down somewhat. I remember my dad telling about Sunday afternoons with his grandpa. They would sometimes contemplate a visit to relatives between Sunday dinner and evening chores, and Great Grandpa would send one of the kids out to the car with a stick and have him measure how much gas there was in the tank. If there was enough, they would make the trip. If it was too low, they would spend the afternoon at home.
In the book 'The Hiding Place' Corrie Ten Boom's sister is thankful for the lice that infest the straw they use for beds in the concentration camp they were sent to. Corrie is stunned when Betsie reveals this in her nightly prayer. Betsie explains that the lice kept the German guards from coming into the living quarters and thus the prisoners could keep some medicine and most important, they hand copies of the New Testament. Well, I am not as thankful as Betsie, or nearly as good of a person either, but I am thankful for the many, many blessings that are in my life so far. I hope that I will always be able to see the hand of the Lord in our lives. If a sparrow doesn't fall without his knowledge, we can be sure that we will not be forgotten either.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
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