Peak Oil Video - Krassimir Petrov Ph.D

This is kind of long (60 minutes!), but it should answer any questions that you might have. He covers supply, demand, and economics. I don't really expect that anyone will actually spend a hour watching this. But I thought it is a good summation, and if you want to learn something this guy is pretty good. Because you won't see this on 60 Minutes doesn't mean it isn't happening.

A Letter From Afton

This was forwarded to me. I thought you might be interested. She is from Oak City.

Sister Afton Dutson writes:
Hi, everybody! I am by some miracle back on my e-mail! It has
been worthless for the last month, but the last 2 weeks, it has been so
sporadic, I haven't been able to do a thing. If by some chance, I could
open it, I would click to read a message and it would abort! And that
was that. Anyway, I made a trip down to the office of Netconnect,
(usually I just call then on the phone to complain about the service,
but this time I really wanted to get to the bottom of it) and they told
me that lightning had struck the tower. And they were out for so long.
They were re-routing everything to Harare, and it wasn't handling it
all. And then, they were working on the line and so we didn't have any
service again for a few days.
And I am not surprised that lightning struck it, because it hit and
killed 3 people. In different locations! It was a wild night! I
thought that it was for sure the end of the world again. (We have been
through 3 or 4 of those end of the world storms, and it is scary!!!)
...When we came out of there, we were so glad to breath fresh air and
come back to our flat, and we were exhausted and depressed. There are
so many sick and dying. And because of the death rate, and all of the
AIDS (1 out of every 3 in Zimbabwe), there are funerals all the time. I
am hoping we won't have to have one for Edward. He has 3 little
children, and his wife died about the time we came here. And last week,
there were 3 funerals in our wards. One was one of the guys killed by
lightning, (he was just riding his bike when he was struck!) and 2 of
them were suicides. One was 14 and the other 17. That happens here
alot, too. Life is not fun for kids like at home. Times are hard and
some of them have a terrible home life and parents that are not much
good, and they just give up. So sad.
A few days ago, our stake president, President Makasi was driving
up to Zambia on CES business, and got in a terrible rain storm, and I
guess the roads were slick, and he hit a spot and skidded and then over
corrected and rolled his little Isuzu (spelling?) truck (with a canopy
on the back). Because of the roll bar on it, and the fact that he was
wearing his seat belt, and the Lord was protecting him, he was not
hurt! But he was up near Kariba Lake, and where there is no network for
his cell phone, he couldn't call anyone. But there was a little traffic
and several people stopped to help him, and he asked them to send a
wrecker to take his car back to Harare. But of course, he couldn't
leave his car, because it would be totally stripped within a few hours
if left alone. So he sat there in it. And it was about 5 in the
evening and he sat there all night, and all the next day until around 6
in the evening and here came our mission president's wife along, with
the two assistants. And they took him to Harare, as soon as the truck
got headed there, too. But I can tell you that he spent a fearful
night. That area is full of animals. And the windows were broken out.
Any lion could reach in and pull him out so easily. And the hyenas run
in packs and are vicioius and all other kinds of wild animals. He said
he was scared. So now, we are also being transport for him part of the
time. And what will he do when we go home? This van that we drive will
be driven up to Harare by us and then left there, as there is not a
couple coming to replace us here. So they don't need the car here. But
he will need something. It takes months here to get anything done like
fixing a car.
Now, for anything we buy, we have to peel out rolls of 10 million
dollar bills to pay for _anything_! A million won't buy anything at
all. It is almost worthless now. We had to get some veggies the other
day, and I asked Elder Dutson how much money he had, would we have
enough to pay for the stuff? And he counted that he had 7 billion 500
million dollars on hand. And we spent it all. They said the other day
that inflation here has now reached 100,000 % An all-time world
record. And still climbing faster than you can believe!Speaking of
cars, Elder Dutson had to get an oil change done on our van, and he went
in to check on the price one day and we went to the bank and got money,
and the next day he went to get it done and the price had jumped in just
that one day from 125,314, 492 dollars, to 1,016,344,482 dollars. 891
thousand dollars more than it was the day before!
And speaking of the animals, we heard the report a few weeks ago
about them arresting 2 poachers who had killed 15 elephants! Taken the
tusks and left the animals there for the vultures and other animals.
How very sad, and how wasteful. This country is rich in scenic places,
and all the wild animals and tourists have always loved to come here and
enjoy that, and now the animals are getting more scarce all the time
with those things going on. And they say that the poachers will spend
something like 20-30 years in jail and pay fines that are astronomical!
It is a serious crime here and still they do it. People are so desperate.
The church deposits in the bank 8 billion dollars in each of three
accounts, every week. It sure costs the church a sum to operate this
mission here in Zimbabwe, wouldn't you say? And the problem is, the
church doesn't get the same exchange rate that we get. They get the
bank rate and it is quite a bit less than the black market that we do.
And speaking of crime, we have a very good friend here who helps
Elder Dutson repair the bikes. He has a business of fixing bikes and
gets parts and that and they spend alot of time working on them. And
one Sunday morning, we got a phone call from Mike and he sounded just
terrible. He had been on his way home the night before, (walking, of
course), and was robbed and beaten horribly! They hit him over and over
with big iron bars, and left him there in the road. Somehow, with some
help from some people who had witnessed it all (but didn't make one move
to help him when it was going on). He said if it had been only 2 guys,
he could have handled it and fought them off, but there were 5 or 6.
That is the way they do it. Get several together and go for one
person. Mike is a big, big guy, and it was sad that he couldn't fight
them off, although he tried. Then he screamed and screamed but no one
will get involved, because they know they would be killed too. He
called his old employers, and they wouldn't do anything about him. So
he called us here, and we went straightaway and picked him up and took
him to a chemist shop and gave him some money for some medications for
the pain he was having, and then left him at his mother's. It was
terrible and his face was swollen up so bad, and I think he had a
concussion, and his head ached terribly for days! But they cannot go to
a hospital or doctor. No money. It is so sad....

Mostly Cloudy, and It Looks Like Rain

"But let's not be too gloomy here.

Other than overleverage, bad debts, sinking home prices, no jobs, shrinking wages, cash strapped US consumers, rising oil prices, a sinking US dollar, $500 trillion in derivatives not marked to market, rampant overcapacity, underfunded pension plans, looming boomer retirements, no funding for Medicaid, no funding for Medicare, and no Social Security trust fund, everything is just fine.

And even though the Fed, central bankers in general, and governments combined to create this problem, the irony is nearly everyone is begging for them to fix the problem by encouraging still more speculation in housing, commercial real estate, and the markets.

Sorry folks, it's the end of the line and payback time for the world's most reckless financial experiment in history. The deflation genie can't be put back in the bottle until leverage everywhere is unwound."


Mike "Mish' Shedlock paints a dreary picture here. But if you are reading the financial press, you know that this stuff well known. For heavens sake, if you have money in stocks or mutual funds think about getting out of it and put it in SHV (basically 3 month Treasury bills) or a nice money market. The value of each of your dollars will be going down through devaluation. But at least you will have the dollars. You won't be missing a rally for some time.

Say you started out in the fall of 2005 with a really great mutual fund like CWGIX. Say you had 25,000 dollars worth to start, by the time November of 2007 rolled around, the value would be up to about 37,000 or so. CWGIX peaked at $50.49 and has since fallen back to $40.73 as of last Friday. That drops the value to just a little over $30K. Thats a drop of about $7K in a little over three months. I don't know what the future will bring, but I think the odds are heavily to downside losses, rather than upside rallies.

Starting a New Garden

After years of both enjoying and bemoaning our shady yard we decided to put in some raised beds. We are hoping that we will get the same production that we get out of the bigger shady part of the yard.

Where the garden is now, we will be planting a small orchard, and some bramble rows. Also, we will use clover for a ground cover. We will be updating this.... so stay tuned.

Weekly Preparedness Goals

This list was sent around in our ward bulletin this week. I thought I would share it. The original was in table format and had a goal for every week of the year. I think you might want to read through these goals and prioritize them for your particular situation. Diapers should probably be pretty high on the list if you have little ones. Still, there are some good things to remember. Most of this is geared for 72 hour, it is a good thing to have for your regular storage as well.

 Obtain a suitable 72 Hour kit container (backpack, duffel bag, garbage can w/lid etc.)
 Check the batteries in your smoke detector
 Add 1-1/2 gallons of water per person to 72 hr. kit
 Add $10 cash to 72 hr. kit.
 Add a can opener to 72 hr. kit.
 Add 2 cans of tuna fish or canned meat to 72 hr. kit.
 Add 1 blanket to 72 hr. kit.
 Add 1 large roll of paper towels to 72 hr. kit.
 Add $10 cash to 72 hr. kit.
 Add 1 bar of soap to 72 hr. kit.
 Add stress relief factors to 72 hr. kit (books, magazines, coloring books, games etc.)
 Add pocket or utility knife to72 hr. kit.
 Add $10 cash to 72 hr. kit.
 Add 1 container of baby wipes to 72 hr. kit.
 Add 1-2 changes of clothes to 72 hr. kit.
 Add 48 oz. non-carbonated canned juice to 72 hr. kit. (date for rotation)
 Add 1 can of fruit, 1 can of vegetables to 72 hr. kit. (date for rotation)
 Add $10 cash to 72 hr. kit.
 Add 1 box matches to 72 hr. kit.
 Add hard candy to 72 hr. kit.
 Add 1 ½ lb peanut butter can to 72 hr. kit.
 Add Ziplock bags (in a variety of sizes) to 72 hr. kit.
 Add $10 cash to 72 hr. kit.
 Check the batteries in your smoke detector and practice escape routes
 Add 1 box of crackers to 72 hr. kit.
 Add 1 bag of plastic utensils to 72 hour kit.
 Add 1 large candle to 72 hr kit.
 Add $10 cash to 72 hr. kit.
 Add 1 lb. Graham crackers to 72 hr kit.
 Add flashlight to 72 hr kit. Check batteries
 Add disinfectant (betadine, bleach, sterile wipes, hand sanitizer ) to 72 hr kit.
 Add paper cups to 72 hr kit.
 Add $10 cash to 72 hr kit.
 Add 1 lb. dried fruit to 72 hr kit.
 Add ½ lb non-fat dried milk to 72 hr. kit.
 Add battery powered radio to 72 hr kit.
 Add $10 cash to 72 hr kit.
 Add items related to individual medical needs to 72 hr kit.
 Add diapers, feminine hygiene supplies to 72 hr kit.
 Add toothbrush and 1 tube toothpaste to 72 hr kit
 Add hand shovel to 72 hr kit.
 Add $10 cash to 72 hr kit.
 Verify each family member's tetanus immunization is up to date.
 Add 1 large roll heavy duty aluminum foil to 72 hr kit.
 Add 1 axe to 72 hr kit.
 Add paper plates to 72 hr kit.
 Add $10 cash to 72 hr kit.
 Add 1-2 boxes of pre-sweetened cereal to 72 hr kit.
 Add photocopies of personal documents to 72 hr kit (wills, insurance policies, birth certificates). Send 1 copy to family member or friend in separate location


Diebold Leaks Election Results

This has a good 'gottcha' factor to it. Have fun with it.

The Care and Keeping of Dutch Ovens

Of all the handy inventions that has been given to mankind, I have to rate dutch ovens above the computer, the internet, the cell phone, and even, dare I say it, the ipod. We didn't come to learn about dutch ovens until we had moved out to the edge of nowhere. Avalanche, Rockslide and I went out with the scouts one fine spring day. There were a lot of scouts, and they all wanted to have their own campfires. We didn't have a Coleman stove, and had kind of chickened out and brought a few sandwiches, some chips, apples, cookies etc. The Scouts were making pizza, popcorn, and the campfire dinner with hamburger, carrots, and potatoes wrapped in tinfoil and put on the campfire. These last could probably be fairly edible if the hamburger was extra lean, the potatoes and carrots were cut into little pieces and the whole thing was seasoned and cooked well - something that is only theory to me. I have never seen one done well. So we ate our dinner, and were still a little peckish. The Scoutmaster asked us if we wanted to have some of his dutch oven dinners. We had no idea what a treat we would have. Dutch oven chicken, cheezey potatoes, cherry cobler.... mmmmm.... Much better than the greasey hamburger, - rare in the inside and cooked to a burnt crisp on the fireside, crunch and burnt potatoes and carrots that the traditional dinner gave us. Our sandwiches had been good, but we really liked this new style of cooking.

Fade back about 15 years. We were on the farm and inflation was roaring along at about 15 percent and we had a lot of exhortation to get our food storage in church and had been making some progress in that area and decided to test it out for a week. It taught us that we didn't have a good way to cook things, and that we didn't like textured vegetable protein at all.... and probably some other lessons as well.

So let's concentrate on food today. Water is probably more important to have if you can't get it, but lets start with food. We didn't have dutch ovens! Yikes, looking back, how strange is that? If you don't have a dutch oven, get one. Save for one, let Santa know it's on your list, use some of the stimulus package money this spring to buy one or more.

I like the ones without the legs. The camp ovens are really better if you are going to use them outside a lot, but you can use the classic ones all the time in the oven, and get your recipes dialed in and then take them outside and use them with briquettes. You will need to have a few small rocks or something else to act as legs, or the oven with smother the briquettes, and you will have very pink, tough and juicy chicken. :)

Dottie asked me to send her some information on dutch oven cooking so that she can put it into the cookbook she is putting together. (Mostly Grandma's recipes, but also other family favorites that anyone has and wants to share).

I got this chart and placement instructions from

http://www.kitchengardeners.org/2007/03/dutch_oven_cooking.html

So maybe this will be helpful. I don't use recipes or charts much, so I am not much help. But maybe I should.

Don't use the briquettes that are supposed to give things a mesquite or other wood flavor. They are made from wood rather than coal, and have a LOT less heat in them... you can use them, but not on a 1 to 1 basis with the chart below. They have less heat, and they burn out quicker, so you might need 1.5:1 or 2:1

If your meat is still a little frozen - more time, more briquettes.

If is is really cold out side - same as above. If the wind is blowing, shelter the ovens, or you don't have a prayer.

You can use them on a regular campfire just fine too. Bring a fireplace ash shovel so that you can heap the coals on top. Also, buy a lid lifter, or have a pair of vise grip pliers handy.

There are lots of little gadgets that can be handy to have, but are not totally necessary. I like the smooth bottom ovens designed for using in the kitchen oven. They nest inside each other, and take less room. But you need to have something to set them on so that the coals or briquettes aren't crushed and can still get some air. Railroad spikes work well for this. So does several little rocks....

You need to have some kind of pliers or forcips or something to move the coals around. Good to have a whisk broom too, to sweep off the top before you serve. I hope this is helpful.

This chart will show you how many briquettes you need to use to achieve a certain temperature in your Dutch oven. The numbers across the top refer to the cooking temperature you wish to achieve. The number down the side refers to your Dutch oven's diameter. So if you have a 12 inch Dutch oven and want to cook something at 350 degrees, for example, you would need 25 briquettes.

	325	350	375	400	425	450
8	15	16	17	18	19	20
10	18	21	23	25	27	29
12	23	25	27	29	31	33
14	30	32	34	36	38	40

Briquette Position

Now you know how many briquettes to use to get a certain temperature. The next question is how many briquettes go on the top, and how many go on the bottom? Use this guide:

To Roast
Put ½ of the briquettes on the bottom, ½ on the lid.

To Bake
Put 1/3 on the bottom, 2/3 on the lid.

To Simmer
Put 2/3 on the bottom, 1/3 on the lid.

Also, realize that a briquette has a heat curve - at the start they put out very little, then the heat rises in sort of a bell shaped curve, reaches a peak and starts to fall of as the fuel in consumed and the actual hot part gets to be as big as a marble, surrounded by a lot of fluffy ash. Don't be fooled...

The more you use your dutch oven, the better it will cook, in that all the little pores in the metal will become filled with carbon, and it will have a slick finish that is very durable.

When you are first seasoning an oven the process is to coat it with oil and bake it at 450 deg F for an hour or so. This will kind of make a slick surface, but it is just a start. For the first dozen or more times, I would just use it to make meat dishes, or bake bread in. If you have a lot of liquid, and especially if there are acids (fruit based desserts), that will dissolve the seasoning coating, and you will have to add more oil and bake it again. Bread is good, put a lot of pan spray in and bake without a lid. Or with one, except for the last few minutes to brown the loaf. And, yes, it won't be shaped like bread you buy in the store.

One more nice thing about DO cooking. It is easy to store a bag of match light briquettes in a closet. They can be used on a propane or coleman gase stove as well, but if push comes to shove, you can gather up some sticks and dry branches from a nearby tree and have a warm meal.

Well, that should get you started. And that is kind of the whole point of this blog. Once you start using a dutch oven in your cooking, I think you will be hooked. And it won't seem so weird either. After the first time you have a power outage that last for a few hours, you will be glad of the water, warm clothes and blankets, and food that you have in you home.